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Climate Change – Blog 5

The record-shattering hurricanes that destroyed Caribbean Islands including much of Puerto Rico, as well as Houston and Florida were well publicized, but did you know that Ireland too was pummeled by a hurricane? Winds hitting Fastnet Island were recorded at 119 mph, on the mainland widespread damage, flooding and power outages occurred and at least two deaths have been reported from trees falling on cars. The hurricane, Ophelia, reached Category 3 status and, in keeping with the prior hurricanes, was made possible in large part, by unusually warm ocean temperatures that were 1 – 2°C (1.8 – 3.6°F) above average. As the planet continues to warm due to the effects of human-caused global warming, we should expect to see more hurricanes maintaining their strength far to the north, allowing them to impact Europe.

The surreal experience of a hurricane-like storm in Ireland was made even more strange by being preceded by an eerie sunrise that brought a hazy, orange sky across much of Ireland and Britain. The orange light was filtering through a thick layer of Saharan dust that had been transported to the north by the trough of low pressure that steered Ophelia northwards. Adding to the haze was smoke from wildfires in Portugal and Spain that killed at least 32 people over the weekend.

Sixty-four people died in a wildfire in Portugal in June, and the country has declared a state of emergency in the northern region. "We are facing new (weather) conditions" due to climate change, Portuguese Interior Minister Constanca Urbano de Sousa said, she also referenced the fires in California. "In an era of climate change, such disasters are becoming reality all over the world." Historic fires have burned much of the Amazon as well.

With the fire season still on-going, Brazil has seen 208,278 fires this year, putting 2017 on track to beat 2004’s record 270,295 fires. While drought (likely exacerbated by climate change) worsens the fires, experts say that nearly every blaze this year is human-caused.

The Amazon forest areas seeing the most wildfires have also seen rapid change in recent years, with high levels of deforestation, and especially forest degradation, as loggers, cattle ranchers, agribusiness and dam builders move in.

Scientists warn of a dangerous synergy: forest degradation is turning the Amazon from carbon sink to carbon source in some dry years; while globally, humanity’s carbon emissions are worsening drought and fires. Brazil’s push for Amazon agribusiness deepens the problem. Researchers warn that mega-fires could be coming unless trends are reversed.

Europe may see an increase in hurricanes as scientists are observing the predicted poleward migration in both the Northern and the Southern hemispheres of intensifying tropical cyclones. This is likely a consequence of human-caused global warming including altered oceanic currents and warmer seas.

Ophelia was an extremely unusual storm and it broke some of the graphical displays used to view the forecasted storm at the National Hurricane Center. Scientists never planned for the possibility that an Atlantic hurricane or its identifiable remnants could make it so far to the northeast. As noted in Blog 4, we no longer live on Earth, we now live on Eaarth where everything climate-related is different and potentially dangerous and disruptive.

Further evidence that climate change is having a devastating impact at the poles was observed by French scientists studying Adelie penguins on Antarctica. Thousands of Adélie penguin chicks in Terre Adélie died of starvation due to unusually thick sea ice that forced their parents to travel an extra 100 kilometers (62 miles) to find food. The colony of over 18,000 pairs of Adélie penguins suffered a "catastrophic breeding failure" with only two chicks surviving.

This is not the first time such an event has occurred. In 2013 the same colony which numbered 20,196 pairs at the time failed to produce a single chick.

Heavy sea ice, combined with unusually warm weather and rain, followed by a rapid drop in temperature, resulted in many chicks becoming saturated and freezing to death. Antarctica as a whole has experienced a record low amount of summer sea ice but the area around the penguin colony has been an exception.

Speaking of starvation, something that millions of people, and animals, must struggle with globally, Oct 16 was World Food Day. Pope Francis received a standing ovation after his speech during which he called the link between Climate Change and Hunger undeniable. The Pope called on governments around the world to acknowledge that climate change and migration were leading to increases in world hunger. "We are called to propose a change in lifestyle and the use of resources," Francis told the audience. "We cannot make do by saying 'someone else will do it.'"

A recent UN report stated that for the first time in over a century, the number of chronically hungry people increased, rising by 38 million people between 2015 and 2016. The UN report noted that 815 million people suffered from chronic hunger in 2016, comprising about 11 percent of the world's population.

At the heart of this rise are climate change and human conflict, both of which drive food insecurity in poverty-stricken communities around the globe.

In a visceral reminder to world leaders on just how devastating the effects of climate change and conflict induced migration can be, Francis unveiled a marble statue of three-year old Alan Kurdi, a Syrian-Kurdish migrant who was found dead on the shores of Greece in 2015. The statue depicts an angel wailing above the boy's corpse. The Vatican said the piece represents the tragedy of human migration.

Around the world, social and political instability are on the rise. Since 2010, state-based conflict has increased by 60 percent and armed conflict within countries has increased by 125 percent. More than half of the food-insecure people identified in the UN report (489 million out of 815 million) live in countries with ongoing violence. More than three-quarters of the world's chronically malnourished children (122 million of 155 million) live in conflict-affected regions.

At the same time, these regions are experiencing increasingly powerful storms, more frequent and persistent drought and more variable rainfall associated with global climate change. These trends are not unrelated. Conflict-torn communities are more vulnerable to climate-related disasters, and crop or livestock failure due to climate contribute to social unrest.

War hits farmers especially hard. Conflict can evict them from their land, destroy crops and livestock, prevent them from acquiring seed and fertilizer or selling their produce, restrict their access to water and forage, and disrupt planting or harvest cycles. Many conflicts occur in rural areas characterized by small holder agriculture or pastoralism. These small-scale farmers are some of the most vulnerable people on the planet. Supporting them is one of the UN's key strategies for reaching its food security targets.

Without other options to feed themselves, farmers and pastoralists in crisis may be forced to leave their land and communities. Migration is one of the most visible coping mechanisms for rural populations who face conflict or climate-related disasters.

Globally, the number of refugees and internally displaced persons doubled between 2007 and 2016. Of the estimated 64 million people who are currently displaced, more than 15 million are linked to one of the world's most severe conflict-related food crises in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, South Sudan, Nigeria or Somalia.

Displacement due to climate disasters also feeds conflict. Drought-induced migration in Syria, for example, has been linked to the conflict there, and many militants in Nigeria have been identified as farmers displaced by drought.

Before transferring to the Good News section of the Blog, here is some data on global weirding weather (courtesy of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information(NCEI):  

September 2017 was the planet's fourth warmest September since record keeping began in 1880. The only warmer Septembers came during 2015, 2016 and 2014.

Global ocean temperatures last month were the fourth warmest on record for any September, and global land temperatures were the third warmest on record. Record warmth was observed across parts of central and southern Africa, southern Asia and scattered across the western, northern, and southern Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean (off the southeastern coast of South America), the Norwegian Sea, Greenland Sea and Barents Sea, and across parts of the Indian Ocean. 

Each of the first eight months of 2017 has ranked among the top four warmest months on record, giving 2017 the second highest January–September temperature in the 138-year record: 0.78°C (1.57°F) above the 20th-century average. This is behind the record year of 2016 by 0.13°C (0.24°F). This near-record warmth in 2017 is especially remarkable given the lack of an El Niño event this year. Global temperatures tend to be warmer during El Niño years, when the ocean releases more heat to the atmosphere. However, 2017 is almost certain to be the planet's warmest year on record that lacks any influence from El Niño, and Earth's four warmest years of the last century-plus are likely to be 2016, 2017, 2015 and 2014.

Two Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes caused billion-dollar weather disasters last month: Hurricane Irma and Hurricane Maria. Through the end of September, Earth had 21 billion-dollar weather events for the year, which is now a typical number for this point in the year. The year that ended with the most billion-dollar weather disasters in records going back to 1990 was 2013, with 41; that year had 33 billion-dollar disasters by the end of September. Last year, there were 28 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of September; that year ended up with 31 such disasters. (Additional data on some of this year's billion-dollar weather disasters through the end of September is at the end of this Blog.)

As for good news on renewable energy: capturing just 2% of the wind would solve the planet’s energy needs. Britain is the windiest country in Europe so it is at the forefront of this green revolution. Last month, the cost of renewable energy dropped dramatically to undercut by almost half the government’s projections for 2025. At £57.50 per megawatt-hour (MWh), it is far cheaper than the state-backed price of £92.50 awarded in 2016 to Hinkley nuclear power station.

Since the government ruled out new onshore windfarms in England energy companies have been forced offshore making the UK the world’s offshore energy leader. Allowed to develop beyond the vision of land-dwellers who see windfarms as a blot on the countryside, the turbines have grown steadily larger, as have the farms to which they belong. Dong’s Hornsea Project Two will span 480 sq km.

One reason for the falling cost of wind energy is that the growing diameter of the blades. A turbine commissioned in 2002 swept 80 metres; in 2005, that figure rose to 90 metres; in 2011, it was 120 metres. By 2020, it will be 180 metres.

Of course, the supply chain has improved, and there have been engineering refinements. But put baldly, wind energy costs less, and will go on costing less, because the turbines are growing taller and the blades longer. The manufacturers of these machines are in a race to produce the largest.

There are technical challenges, too, such as the difficulty of storing the energy captured. Batteries for this purpose – such as the E.ON facility that opened in Sheffield last week – are still developing and are crucial to securing the supply, making it reliable. But still, the possibilities are immense.

Large turbines on the ocean offer certain advantages, but other opportunities are higher up. Wind turbines on kites are in research and development. The jet stream, for Caldeira, is the largest, most concentrated renewable energy source on the planet, 20 times as potent in every square metre as direct sunlight in the middle of the day.

As I’ve noted, the transportation sector is a major contributor to GHG emissions, and individually, we all emit C02 when we drive our cars. In Norway, 37% of its new cars are electric. They expect it to be 100% in just 8 years (by 2025).

In December, the country hit 100,000 zero-emission EVs on the road, and they are projected to quadruple to 400,000 by 2020. These numbers are especially remarkable for a country of only 5.2 million people. Over five percent of all of Norway’s cars are EVs, up from one percent two years ago. EVs may win on straight economics then, but the country, and others, has been considering outright bans.

The electric vehicle revolution is at a tipping point. Battery prices have been dropping much faster than predicted. China launched a massive scale up in both batteries and EVs in recent years. EV sales have been soaring worldwide. By 2025, more than 37 million fully electric vehicles are expected to be on the road globally, and those EVs will be cost competitive without subsidies.

No wonder every country is racing to be the EV leader, or, rather, every country but one. Trump is committed to killing domestic climate action responses and slashing federal clean energy funding. He continues to favor the enemies of EVs, such as Big Oil and Russia/Vladimir Putin. If Trump keeps his campaign pledge to promote oil rather than clear air, US workers could miss out on one of the biggest new job-creating industries of the next quarter century.

Lastly, Trump recently made three hires you should know about:

Kathleen Hartnett White was placed at the head of the Council on Environmental Quality. She is an unabashed defender of fossil fuels who has argued against the endangerment finding and the utility of the Endangered Species Act. If confirmed to head the CEQ, she would be coordinating environmental efforts across all federal agencies.

She has decried regulation of carbon dioxide, which she calls "the gas of life," and co-authored last year's paean to the fracking boom, "Fueling Freedom: Exposing the Mad War on Energy." Her co-author, economist Stephen Moore, founded the Club for Growth, the political action group that weaponized the primary process to successfully move the Republican party to the right over the past two decades.

"An invisible, harmless trace gas in the Earth's atmosphere, CO2 is a plant food," White said last year in a Q&A with the Orlando Sentinel.

In her 2014 monograph, "Fossil Fuels: The Moral Case," she wrote: "Humanity's use of fossil fuels has released whole populations from abject poverty.”  She has also promoted tactics for undermining the Endangered Species Act, claiming its protections for endangered wildlife imperil prosperity.

Trump announced his nomination of Barry Myers, the CEO of private weather company AccuWeather, to lead the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the country's foremost scientific agency for oceanic and climate research. Mr. Myers has potential conflicts of interest, especially his support of a highly criticized bill that would shift taxpayer-funded National Weather Service data to for-profit companies (such as AccuWeather).

AccuWeather's business model takes NOAA data and products on weather, developed with taxpayer dollars, and delivers them to the public for a fee. Myers has been a strong advocate against NOAA having the capability to provide such products directly to the public, hence the rather boring form of NOAA forecasts which is interpreted and commoditized by companies like AccuWeather.

AccuWeather has been active in efforts to undercut the role of NOAA. In 2005, AccuWeather, under the leadership of Myers' brother Dr. Joel Myers, worked with Senator Rick Santorum on a bill to severely restrict the National Weather Service's ability to provide weather forecasts to the public. The company donated to Santorum's then Senate campaign and has been vocal about their interest in downsizing NOAA in the interest of privatizing weather forecasting.

Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), who now serves as the ranking member of the Senate Commerce Committee, successfully blocked the bill from consideration.

"We've had ten hurricanes in ten weeks, I want to make absolutely sure any NOAA administrator will put the public first in delivering freely available weather forecasts," Nelson said. "We can't afford to have someone in this position that might be tempted to feather their own nest by privatizing the National Weather Service."

 NOAA has other crucial roles besides issuing daily forecasts. The agency produces important climate change research and manages the nation's fisheries.

Trump's 2018 budget proposal cuts NOAA's budget by 17 percent to $4.8 billion, including cutting $230 million for grant and education programs. Cutting basic research into the oceans, atmosphere, and climate, the taxpayer-funded research done by NOAA and NWS, will lead to less reliable weather modeling by private firms like AccuWeather as well as federal models like the Global Forecast System.

Trump placed Drue Pearce as the acting administrator for the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), an agency in the Department of Transportation responsible for ensuring oil and gas pipeline integrity. However, she is also associated with a company specializing in the sale of oil spill equipment. At the time of the appointment the Administration had yet to nominate an administrator for the agency, so Pearce became the Acting Administrator.

Business records filed in the state of Alaska show that since 2009 Pearce and her husband, Michael F. Williams, have owned Spill Shield Inc., an Anchorage-based company selling equipment for oil spill responses. Mr. Williams is a former oil executive who worked at BP for many years.

Both Pearce and Williams are also registered in Alaska as owning Cloverland LLC, which shares the same Anchorage address as Spill Shield. Company records for Cloverland indicate it is involved in the "sale of environmental response equipment."

Government ethics rules define a personal financial interest as instances in which a government employee's immediate family members—including spouses—receive financial gain that may compromise the employee's service of the public interest.

Jeff Hauser, executive director of the Revolving Door Project at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said that Pearce's situation raises serious red flags.

"It's important and disturbing to learn that a senior Trump administration official has a significant financial interest in oil spills. The fact that it's an appointee's spouse who owns a company, rather than the appointee, does not shield them from conflicts of interest scrutiny in either common sense or the law."

Ms. Pearce did not have to be confirmed by the Senate and therefore did not have to file an Ethics Agreement.

Carl R. Howard, Co-chair, Global Climate Change Committee, NYSBA EELS

Follow me on Twitter @Howard.Carl

(The views expressed above are entirely my own.)

Here is more data on recent storms, and record weather events:

• Hurricane Harvey, U.S., 8/25 – 9/2, >$20 billion, 60 killed
• Hurricane Irma, Caribbean, Bahamas, SE U.S., 9/5 – 9/12, >$30 billion, 124 killed
• Hurricane Maria, Caribbean, 9/18 – 9/21, >$20 billion, 78 killed
• Flooding, China, 6/22 – 7/5, $7.5 billion, 141 killed
• Flooding, China, 7/13 – 7/17, $4.5 billion, 20 killed
• Flooding, Peru, 1/1 – 4/1, $3.1 billion, 120 killed
• Severe Weather, Rockies, Plains, U.S., 5/8 – 5/11, $2.6 billion, 0 killed
• Drought, China, 5/1 – 8/31, $2.5 billion, 0 killed
• Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Australia, 3/27 – 4/5, $2.4 billion, 14 killed
• Drought, Italy, 1/1 – 7/31, $2.3 billion, 0 killed
• Severe Weather, Plains, Southeast, Midwest U.S., 3/26 – 3/28, $2.3 billion, 0 killed
• Severe Weather, Midwest, Plains, Southeast MS Valley U.S., 4/28 – 5/01, $2.0 billion, 20 killed
• Drought, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, 1/1 – 3/31, $1.9 billion, hundreds killed
• Tropical Storm Nanmadol, Japan, 7/4 – 7/6, $1.0 billion, 37 killed
• Winter Weather, Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Northeast U.S., 3/13 – 3/15, $1.0 billion, 11 killed

Arctic sea ice extent during September 2017 was the seventh lowest in the 38-year satellite record. The record-low extent years were 2012 and 2007. The five lowest Arctic sea ice extents were measured in September 2012, 2007, 2016, 2011 and 2015.

Sea ice surrounding Antarctica had the second lowest extent on record in September 2017 and has been at record- to near-record lows since September 2016.

Notable Global Heat and Cold Marks Set for September 2017

• Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 50.3°C (122.5°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, Sept. 3
• Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -37.0°C (-27.2°F) at Summit, Greenland, Sept. 3
• Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 42.8°C (109.0°F) at Birdsville, Australia, Sept. 27
• Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -78.3°C (-108.9°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, Sept. 2

Major Weather Stations That Set (Not Tied) New All-Time Heat or Cold Records in September 2017

So far in 2017, 168 major weather stations have set records for the all-time highest temperature ever measured and 17 have set records for the all-time lowest temperature ever measured. Here are some of the records for September 2017:

• San Francisco (California) max. 41.1°C (105.98 F), Sep. 1
• San Luis Obispo (California) max. 46.1°C (114.98 F), Sept. 2
• Conceicao do Araguaia (Brazil) max. 41.5°C (106.7 F), Sept. 19

As of October 17, thirteen nations have set or tied all-time national heat records in 2017 and two have set or tied all-time cold records. National all-time monthly temperature records so far in 2017 have numbered 44 for maximum temperature and two for minimum temperature. (The source for international weather records is Maximiliano Herrera, a top climatologist, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation on his website.)

All-Time National Heat Records Set or Tied in 2017:

• Macau: 102.2°F (39.0°C) at Ka Ho, Coloane Island, Aug. 22 (tie)
• Hong Kong: 102.2°F (39.0°C) at Wetland Park, Aug. 22
• Vatican City: 105.3°F (40.7°C) at Roma Macao AWS, Aug. 2 (tie)
• United Arab Emirates: 125.2°F (51.8°C), at Mezaira, July 30
• Spain: 117.1°F (47.3°C), at Montoro AEMET, July 13
• Iran: 128.7°F (53.7°C), at Ahwaz, June 29
• Oman: 123.4°F (50.8°C), at Qurayyat on May 30 and at Joba on May 31 (tie)
• Pakistan: 128.3°F (53.5°C), at Turbat on May 28 (tie)
• Guinea: 113°F (45.0°C), at Koundara, March 29 (tie)
• Chile: 113°F (45.0°C), at Cauquenes, Jan. 26
• Cocos Islands (Australia): 91.0°F (32.8°C), at Cocos Island Airport, Feb. 23 (tie with April 8, 2015 and April 11, 1998)

All-Time National Cold Records Set in 2017:

• United Arab Emirates: 22.3°F (-5.4°C) at Jabel Jais, Feb. 3
• Qatar: 34.7°F (1.5°C) at Abu Samra, Feb. 5

Other Records Set in 2017:

• Asian record of highest temperature ever recorded in April: 50.0°C (122 F) at Larkana, Pakistan, April 19
• World record of highest temperature ever recorded in May (tied): 53.5°C (128.3 F)at Turbat, Pakistan, May 28
• Asian record of highest temperature ever recorded in June: 53.7°C 128.66 F) at Ahwaz, Iran, June 29
• Northern Hemisphere record of lowest temperature ever recorded in July: -33.0°C (91.4 F) at Summit, Greenland, July 4